Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 9.75 lakh crore in two days of heavy decline in the equity market, with the Sensex plunging 1,457 points on Monday. The 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 1,456.74 points or 2.68 per cent to settle at 52,846.70 on Monday. It had ended 1,016.84 points or 1.84 per cent lower at 54,303.44 on Friday.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
For existing investors, it may be prudent to redeem their current investments in gilt or dynamic schemes and invest it in short-term funds, if the exit load is not very high, advises Malhar Majumder.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
The rupee surged to its highest level in five weeks to end at 65.58 by gaining 38 paise against the US currency.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
The central bank had revised its inflation forecast significantly downward in the last policy
RBI could opt for a 'deep cut' after winning inflation war, say experts.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
RBI unsure whether to cut rates or not in its next monetary policy.
Equity markets halted their two-day rally on Friday, with the Sensex tumbling 714.53 points amid weak global equities and selling in index majors Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Continuous foreign fund outflows also dented sentiments. The BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 714.53 points or 1.23 per cent to settle at 57,197.15. During the day, it plummeted 776.96 points or 1.34 per cent to 57,134.72. The NSE Nifty also declined 220.65 points or 1.27 per cent to 17,171.95.
Gold has risen sharply due to rising risk aversion
Gold is currently trading at Rs 25,200 for 10 grams.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the government will continue to pursue policies to support growth amid global slowdown.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
US Fed rate rise raises risk of further drying up of FII flows.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
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According to the global financial services major, the primary concern for the RBI at the moment has to be anchoring elevated inflation expectations and stabilising the currency, which could face renewed pressures if the Fed begins QE tapering this week, as widely expected.
Equity indices nursed losses for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as investors continued to dump IT, banking and FMCG stocks amid a bearish trend in global markets. Unabated foreign fund outflows and the rupee dropping to another record low against the US dollar added to the woes, traders said. Participants were also in wait-and watch mode ahead of release of retail inflation and factory output data.
According to the global financial services major, the Consumer Price Index based inflation is peaking off and is expected to be around 7.5-8 per cent in September.
Forex dealers said besides selling of the American currency by exporters and banks, gains in other Asian currencies against the dollar and a higher opening in the domestic stock market also supported the rupee.
Sensex to end this year at 27,500 and reach 29,000 by mid 2016.
RBI might not cut rate on June 2 but will surely cut soon.
Concerns related to capital outflows in the aftermath of the first US interest rate hike in nearly a decade predominantly weighed on the rupee trade.
CEOs of leading banks say third straight rate hike by RBI inevitable, though not desirable.
Jehanabad: Of Love And War authentically captures Bihar's political skullduggery and caste violence, observes Deepa Gahlot.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
Since 2005, in 8 out of 10 years (except in CY11 and CY14) the benchmark indices have given positive returns in December.
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates on hold at 7.50 per cent.
The FMCG index gained more than 1% on the back of stellar gains in ITC.
The Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and quarterly earnings will be the major sentiment drivers for the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Investors will also take cues from the monthly auto sales numbers to be announced on Monday. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Diwali Laxmi Pujan and on Friday for Diwali Balipratipada.
RBI likely to cut rate early next year.
'The potential headwind is that the Indian economy is likely to see a slowdown in growth rates over the next two years.'
The partially convertible rupee closed at 62.09/10 per dollar compared with Tuesday close of 62.01/02, a fifth day of losses out of six.
Continuing their massive selling spree for the ninth consecutive month, foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth Rs 50,203 crore in June -- the highest net outflow in over two years -- amid aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, elevated inflation and relatively higher valuation of domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have now pulled out around Rs 2.2 lakh crore from domestic equities in the first six months of 2022 -- the highest-ever net withdrawal by them. Before that, FPIs withdrew Rs 52,987 crore in the entire 2008, data with depositories showed.
The Indian rupee on Thursday appreciated by 12 paise to end at 66.71.
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